The Middle East has always been the chessboard of empires, and now, with the recent Saudi–Pakistan defense pact, the board has been shaken once again. While many in Pakistan and other Islamic countries see the agreement as a counterbalance to Israel, the reality is more complicated. The pact is less about Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, and far more about Riyadh’s uneasy relationship with Tehran and the never-settled conflict in Yemen.
On the streets of Lahore, Karachi, and Cairo, the popular opinion is that Saudi Arabia’s tightening of bonds with Pakistan signals a united Muslim front against Israel. This belief is natural, given Israel’s growing ties with Gulf states through the Abraham Accords. Yet, the actual target of this strategic maneuver is Iran, not Israel.
For Riyadh, Tehran has long been the rival across the Persian Gulf. Their competition is not just political but deeply sectarian: Sunni-led Saudi Arabia against Shi’a-led Iran. Their clashes have manifested not through direct wars, but through a web of proxy conflicts stretching from Lebanon to Syria to Yemen.
The Iran–Saudi Rivalry: Pakistan’s Strategic Role
The Iran–Saudi conflict is rooted in both ideology and power projection. Since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Tehran has sought to export its revolutionary Shi’a model across the Muslim world, positioning itself as the defender of the oppressed and the true Islamic vanguard. Saudi Arabia, as the custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, sees itself as the rightful leader of the Muslim world. The two visions are fundamentally irreconcilable.
In Lebanon, Iran backs Hezbollah; in Syria, it supports Bashar al-Assad’s regime; in Iraq, it influences Shi’a militias; and in Yemen, it funds and arms the Houthis, the very group that has been firing missiles and drones into Saudi territory for years. Riyadh’s war in Yemen, launched in 2015, has drained its resources and reputation, but the threat hasn’t disappeared.
This is where Pakistan enters the picture.
Pakistan has historically walked a tightrope between Saudi Arabia and Iran. With millions of Pakistani workers in the Gulf and heavy Saudi financial aid flowing into Islamabad, Riyadh holds deep leverage. Yet Pakistan also shares a long border with Iran and cannot afford open hostility.
The new Saudi–Pakistan defense pact is Riyadh’s insurance policy. By binding Pakistan into a formal security arrangement, Saudi Arabia gains not just an ally but access to a nuclear-capable state with one of the largest standing armies in the Muslim world. For Pakistan, the pact brings economic relief, political clout, and a reaffirmation of its role as a power broker in Islamic geopolitics.
Interestingly, Israel is not the immediate concern of this agreement. While public narratives in South Asia frame it as a Muslim bloc forming against Israel, Saudi Arabia’s real battlefield is Yemen, and behind Yemen, Iran. For Riyadh, Iran’s shadow looms larger than any Israeli jet over Gaza.
That said, the pact indirectly complicates Israel’s security calculations. If Saudi Arabia is more emboldened by Pakistani backing, its approach to normalization with Israel could slow, stall, or at least become more conditional.
The Bigger Picture:
The Saudi–Pakistan pact underlines a hard reality: the Middle East is entering a new era where Muslim-majority states no longer rely solely on Western protection. But will Muslim countries truly emerge from Washington’s influence? While Moscow and Beijing are carving out their own spheres of power, regional actors such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan are determined to set their own rules. Yet the question remains: can Saudi Arabia and Pakistan go unchecked by Washington?
The answer is No, and here’s why. Saudi Arabia’s defense pact with the United States provides the Kingdom with access to some of the most advanced American-made weapons, from fighter jets to missile defense systems. However, these arms remain strictly under Saudi ownership, with Washington imposing end-user restrictions that prevent their transfer to any third party, including Pakistan. Despite close military cooperation between Riyadh and Islamabad, where Pakistani expertise often supports Saudi defense, Pakistan cannot directly deploy or control U.S.-supplied Saudi weapons.
This makes one thing clear: the pact is not designed to be used against Israel, since Washington would never permit its weapons to target Tel Aviv. But the U.S. would have far fewer objections to their use against regional rivals like Yemen or Iran. In this shifting environment, alliances will not be driven by religion, but by cold, pragmatic interests. For Saudi Arabia, that means containing Iran, stabilizing Yemen, and leveraging Pakistan’s military strength as a deterrent. For Pakistan, it means staying relevant in Middle Eastern geopolitics while securing crucial economic lifelines.
